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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass deep left to 11-T.Pryor Sr. pushed ob at PIT 1 for 26 yards (31-R.Cockrell).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.93 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model