Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

(2:16) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass short middle to 11-T.Pryor Sr. to CLE 35 for 8 yards (94-L.Timmons).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.25 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 73, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.43 EP