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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(:31) (Shotgun) 34-I.Crowell right guard to PIT 27 for 2 yards (50-R.Shazier; 90-R.Mathews).

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.04 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP