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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 3-M.Bryant 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.52 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP