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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-E.Weems ran ob at ATL 16 for 5 yards (52-Z.Gooden).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model