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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 80

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 6-M.Wile punts 57 yards to ARI 23, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 29 for 6 yards (14-E.Weems).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.17 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model