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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 13 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(14:22) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Floyd (32-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.45 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model