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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 43

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 12-M.Sanu to ARI 36 for 7 yards (36-D.Swearinger).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.54 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model