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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 7

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 7-C.Catanzaro 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model