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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:29) 6-C.Sturgis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.28 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model