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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP