Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(10:26) 8-D.Jones punts 34 yards to GB 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 18-R.Cobb MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 15. 18-R.Cobb to GB 15 for no gain (42-C.Maragos). PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at GB 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.31 EP
77% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP

KICK -1.18 EP

34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model