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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 35

Green Bay Packers 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 87-J.Nelson ran ob at PHI 14 for 21 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.26 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model