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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to GB 13, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.14 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP