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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 1

New Orleans Saints 14 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(7:47) (Run formation) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 1, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model