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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 21 – New Orleans Saints 35

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to NO 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 87-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP