Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 21 – New Orleans Saints 42

What Actually Happened

(:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 87-T.Lewis MUFFS catch, touched at NO 21, recovered by NO-49-S.Keo at NO 19. 49-S.Keo to NO 19 for no gain (23-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.57 EP
70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model