Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 49 – Los Angeles Rams 21

(7:04) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to LA 4, Center-47-J.Drescher. 11-T.Austin to LA 12 for 8 yards (49-S.Keo).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model