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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 95

Los Angeles Rams 21 – New Orleans Saints 49

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 68 yards to NO 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-13-M.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -3.83 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 95, worth -5.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 53, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model