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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to LA 8, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model