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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 54

Los Angeles Rams 7 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to NO 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 31-J.Byrd.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model