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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 42

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-A.Thielen.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model