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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 11

Detroit Lions 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 5-M.Prater 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.54 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP