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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 49

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 34-Z.Zenner up the middle to MIN 49 for no gain (96-B.Robison). Detroit challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 02:00.)

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.80 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model