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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 49

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 15-G.Tate (34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP