Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Detroit Lions 10

(12:07) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to DET 10, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-A.Roberts to DET 13 for 3 yards (12-C.Johnson, 84-C.Patterson).

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
61% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model