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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 66

Detroit Lions 10 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to MIN 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-A.Thielen to MIN 14 for -1 yards (35-M.Killebrew, 48-D.Muhlbach).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.26 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model