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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 2-K.Forbath 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 10, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model