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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 18-J.Locke punts 57 yards to DET 3, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds. PENALTY on DET-52-A.Williams, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at DET 3.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.57 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 19, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP