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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 94

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to NYG 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-B.Rainey to 50 for 7 yards (80-R.Louis).

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.71 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 94, worth -5.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 52, worth -2.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model