4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 58

New York Giants 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:43) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to CLE 13, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 12 for -1 yards (93-B.Goodson).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.20 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model