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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 58

New York Giants 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:50) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 38 yards to CLE 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.62 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model