Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to NYG 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 38, RECOVERED by CLE-54-D.Alexander at NYG 32. 54-D.Alexander to NYG 30 for 2 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.51 EP
64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model