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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 34-I.Crowell right guard to NYG 19 for 2 yards (91-K.Sheppard).

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 31, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model