Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 48

Cleveland Browns 6 – New York Giants 14

(10:11) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 39 yards to NYG 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 21 for 12 yards (80-R.Louis; 53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP

KICK -1.43 EP

27% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
73% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model