Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 6 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to NYG 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-O.Beckham pushed ob at NYG 46 for 26 yards (30-D.Kindred). PENALTY on NYG-24-E.Apple, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 24. Penalty on NYG-28-P.Perkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.14 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model