Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 84

New York Giants 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

(4:16) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 56 yards to CLE 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 37 for 9 yards (43-B.Rainey; 94-M.Herzlich).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.73 EP
60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model