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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 47

New York Giants 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:18) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to CLE 4, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-82-R.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.78 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP