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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 5

What Actually Happened

(6:39) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 27 yards to SEA 14, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP