Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(4:34) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to TB 43, Center-48-N.Frese, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.74 EP
63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model