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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to TB 20, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.87 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP