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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 5

What Actually Happened

(14:13) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to SEA 7, Center-48-A.DePaola. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 7 for no gain (26-J.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model