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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 5 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to TB 12, Center-48-N.Frese. 11-A.Humphries to TB 36 for 24 yards (48-N.Frese). FUMBLES (48-N.Frese), ball out of bounds at TB 36.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.63 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model