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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 52

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:21) (Punt formation) 9-J.Ryan punts 48 yards to TB 4, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-27-N.Thorpe.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.95 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model