4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 80

Miami Dolphins 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 42 yards to SF 38, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.44 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP