Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(:58) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to MIA 24, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 6 yards (86-K.Nelson; 81-R.Streater). SF-56-S.Skov was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.56 EP
66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model