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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:34) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP