Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Miami Dolphins 17

(3:36) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to MIA 39, Center-86-K.Nelson. 14-J.Landry to MIA 40 for 1 yard (57-M.Wilhoite).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model