Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 77

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Miami Dolphins 24

(15:00) (Punt formation) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to MIA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
70% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 77, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model