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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Miami Dolphins 31

What Actually Happened

(2:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model